Wednesday, October 26, 2005

you knew i was going to write about theo epstein sometime

Cashman decides to return to Yankees

They'd never find anyone with a more perfect name, unless they hired Mr. Moneybags from Monopoly.

And speaking of general managers... Epstein rejects updated offer from Sox.

For the unaware, Theo Epstein is pretty much Suzie's favorite person. Like, ever. Why? Well, Suzie here fancies herself a general-manager-in-training. Suzie's always loved baseball, but she was never very... how shall we say... good at it. However, she -- oh, whatever, I hate third-person narrative -- I have been in love with statistical analysis ever since the ninth grade, when I was graciously put out of my right-field misery and became a converted scorekeeper. The Palmer High School Junior Varsity Softball Team knew their individual OPS when they didn't even know what OPS actually was. I'm an inherently right-brained kinda girl, but for some reason, numbers make perfect sense to me in relation to baseball. Maybe it's because I understand the applicability of Runs Created far more than I do definitive integrals, or maybe it's because baseball is such an all-consuming passion of mine that I can't not understand something about it, but the only time I care about numbers is within the context of sabermetrics. Which isn't nearly evidence enough to convince someone that I'd make a great baseball operations intern, but hey, we roll with what we get.

Anyway. As you'd guess, I'm a Billy Beane fan, and I like what J.P. Ricciardi's doing up in Toronto, but Theo Epstein's still my favorite. It's difficult to describe what Theo means to the city of Boston -- other, more talented writers have tried to articulate it, so I'll just say this: not only did he ascend to the top position at a time when the Red Sox fanbase was running on a fresh burst of energy thanks to the new ownership, but he's a local, relatable guy who brought Boston its 2004 WORLD CHAMPIONSHIP (kthx I like the capslock). Some of the players were Duquette guys, and some of them were even Gorman guys (I'm looking at you, Trot Nixon), but the 2004 Red Sox were by and large a Theo Epstein production.

Theo's also uniquely suited for the Boston GM job. He's from Brookline, first of all, so he understands the rabid fanbase -- public relations blunders are the domain of others in the organization, not Theo. He's also proven himself capable of handling the Boston job, which is more difficult than in any other organization with the exception of the New York Yankees. You might think that playing with someone else's money is easy, but it's not. There's a lot of money tied up in long-term deals, and Theo has to properly assess the risk of each contract in order to determine whether or not it's worth it. And you know what? Not everything he's done has worked out. But for every 2005 Matt Mantei, there's a 2003/2004 Kevin Millar. For every 2004 Byung-Hyun Kim, there's a 2003 Scott Williamson. And for every Edgar Renteria, there's a David Ortiz. (By the way, I'm still not convinced that the Edgar signing won't work out next year. But again, I'm not a GM, I just play one on TV.)

The "Curse" was never really a curse, and I have some extensive thoughts on that, but to sum it up -- the problem with the Boston franchise was that management spent too much money on marginal players, like Mike Lansing and Jose Offerman. It was mismanagement. And I know that Theo's made some deals that aren't exactly auspicious. But we're talking about a guy with three years of experience. Dan Duquette gave Mike Lansing $6,250,000 to suck ass in the infield in 2001 -- which was his eighth year of being GM. Theo's made some mistakes, but you know what? They're rookie mistakes. And the good, especially when taken in that context, far, far outweighs the bad.

I'm not saying Theo's the best GM in baseball. That's John Schuerholz. But he has the potential to be. We're talking about someone who played the primary role in constructing a WORLD CHAMPION team in his second year on the job, and that was working with parts that weren't his. Imagine what he could do if the 2011 team, say, was entirely his. I'd be down with a Red Sox dynasty as constructed by Theo -- and I haven't even talked about the draft picks.

However, he's got to be around in 2011 for that to happen.

Here's the thing. There are a number of GM openings and potential GM openings around baseball -- Philadelphia, Arizona, and Baltimore, just to name a few. The market for GMs is wide open, and there aren't that many top-of-the-line, qualified candidates out there to fill the positions. If the Boston Red Sox let Theo Epstein walk, you can bet your ass that he'll have three job offers from other teams the next day. If Sox ownership doesn't want him -- okay, I'll be blunt and evil, if Larry Lucchino doesn't want him -- then someone else sure as hell will.

Honestly? Just give him whatever the hell he wants. Comparatively, it's nothing more than a drop in the bucket for a team that pays Manny Ramirez $20 million a year -- and it just makes logical sense. If Theo walks over money (and not the power dynamic, which is an issue I'm not really confident about going near), then you have to look at it objectively: a very qualified candidate did not think that amount was enough to take the job. What are the chances of getting another very qualified candidate to take the job for less? They won't. They'll want more. The argument currently in favor is that the Sox were going to pay Billy Beane astronomical amounts to take over, and that Theo should get near the same; well, it'll work reciprocally. A very qualified GM candidate will ask for around the same amount the Sox were offering Theo, or more. Add in competing job offers, and the Red Sox will have to pay another qualified candidate more than what they're offering Theo.

They'll be overpaying for general management talent no matter what -- why not give that money to the guy who built a championship squad in his sophomore season and who's shown himself capable of not only dealing with the Boston media spotlight, but who has become a beloved figure in New England?

Just give the man his money. Theo Epstein should be getting paid whatever number Theo Epstein decides is right. Nothing less.

And I'd like to point out that I didn't even say "hot" once. Once.

3 Comments:

Blogger Pam said...

I almost passed out when I saw the "Epstein rejects updated offer from Sox" headline today. Uuuuugh.

9:56 PM  
Blogger Suzie said...

Dude, seriously. That wasn't really how I wanted to start my morning.

10:00 PM  
Blogger BAC said...

You might not have said it, but we all know you were thinking it ;)

8:00 AM  

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